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Prediction for CME (2014-08-15T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-08-15T21:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/6416/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament eruption taking place at central meridian starting ~2014-08-15T17:00
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-08-19T05:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-08-19T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2014 Aug 16 1320 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40816
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Aug 2014, 1308UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Aug 2014 until 18 Aug 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Four C flares were registered during the past 24 hours. The
brightest one was a C1.5 flare released by NOAA AR 2139 with peak time
21:54 UT on August 15. In the next 48 hours, eruptive conditions (C
flaring) are expected, with a slight chance for M flares (30%), especially
from beta-gamma regions NOAA AR 2144 and 2139. A large filament eruption
took place near the central meridian around 16:54 UT on August 15, and an
associated partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 starting around 18:00
UT. Preliminary analysis suggests an arrival time at Earth in the second
half of August 19. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by
ACE decreased from about 360 to 280 km/s, while the magnitude of the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 4 nT. Over the
past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and
3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes

Lead Time: 64.63 hour(s)
Difference: -12.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-08-16T13:20Z

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